Leaked Civil Service Report Highlights Dangers of "No Deal" Brexit

By Alistair Cameron, Aug 20, 2019 9:08

Last weekend the Sunday Times printed details of a leaked civil service document (“Operation Yellowhammer”) on Britain's readiness to leave the European Union on 31 October without a deal.


The report is alarming:-

  • Some fresh food will be less available and more expensive. This will particularly hit the most vulnerable.
  • Medical supplies will be vulnerable to severe delays, especially as three-quarters come through the main Channel crossings.
  • The introduction of export tariffs into the EU together with the UK government's plans to set import tariffs into Britain at zero will damage the competitiveness of British refineries and “inadvertently” close two of the UK's six oil refineries leading to 2,000 job losses. The resulting strike action would lead to limited fuel availability in the regions which they directly supply. The BBC and local press have reported that whilst Valero are committed to be in Pembrokeshire for the long-term, a "No Deal" Brexit and the unfair tariffs will make it harder for them to increase investment in
    their Pembrokeshire oil refinery.
  • The worse disruption to the short Channel crossings might last for 3 months before flow rates rise to about 50% - 70% (as more traders get prepared) although disruption could continue for much longer.
  • The current plans for no checks at the Irish border are “unsustainable” due to economic, legal and biosecurity risks. EU tariffs and regulatory requirements for goods entering Ireland will severely disrupt trade. The agri-food sector will be hardest hit.
  • There will be passenger delays at EU airports, Euro-Tunnel and Dover.
  • Those on the lowest incomes will be most affected by rising food and petrol prices.

We can also conclude that the ferry ports at Fishguard and Pembroke Dock will be affected by these issues.

The government claim that they have made a lot of progress since this report in preparing "No Deal" Where is their evidence?

No-one voted to crash out of the EU without a deal. The Prime Minister has no mandate for this and 100 MPs have asked for an early recall of Parliament. MPs need to stop the
Prime Minister before it is too late.

Pembrokeshire for Europe (not affiliated to any political party) will be holding a public meeting on the impact of Brexit on Pembrokeshire on Thursday, September 19 at the
Bloomfield Centre, Narberth at 7 pm. Speakers will discuss the impact on agriculture, fishing and Pembrokeshire County Council. A speaker has also been invited from the Welsh Government. Please come along to ask questions and have your say. You can find out more by emailing pembrokeshire@walesforeurope.org

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